Unobstructed access to critical information.
The primary technology-enhanced threat identified that needs to be mitigated is the ability of adversaries to flood the zone with disinformation. There are several opportunities for improving resilience of critical information production and dissemination. These include conducting a risk assessment of putting government data on a public cloud or government server, the construction of an artificial intelligence content verification and public awareness system, and sharing resilience lessons between nations.
A second threat is an adversary’s ability to interfere with crisis communication systems and hotlines. Stronger attribution and retribution capabilities are needed, allied to a bespoke system for deterring cyber-attacks. “Responses need to be tethered to transgressions in order to establish that attacks have unpalatable consequences”.
A third threat concerns that posed to critical national infrastructure (CNI), which is increased by the interdependence of civil networks, many of which do not maintain adequate cyber hygiene. In response, there is a pressing need to use emerging technologies such as AI to build and maintain a live understanding of complex systems, which in turn would enable a more holistic approach to system monitoring. There is also a critical need to standardise communication amongst relevant stakeholders to promote a shared awareness of emerging threats. Given the vital role the private sector must play, opportunities to pre-negotiate contracts for crisis response should be explored. This would allow the private sector to budget and plan for such emergencies.
Above all, government responses to intrusions into critical national infrastructure need to be enhanced by technology, with intrusions of any kind – not just cyber –more proactively dissuaded. Best practice might be better promoted if NATO articulated policies that spelled out precisely what the Alliance would do in response to an attack on CNI.
A fourth threat concerned territorial integrity. The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea demonstrated the vital need for a host of technology-enhanced responses. Accelerated attribution and identification of hybrid forces and stealth territorial acquisition was the primary recommendation to improve deterrence postures, including using new technologies to record actions and build accountability.
Further use of technology to enhance resilience in the face of territorial aggression included dispersed Citizen Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities through which citizen resistance groups could be organised. Some form of national service could help improve societal cohesion in States that are open to it.